Floor-Crossing Fallout: Can Matt Jeneroux Give Mark Carney a Majority?

Watch closely.

When an Alberta Conservative MP crosses the floor to join Mark Carney’s Liberals, you’re watching more than just one politician switching teams. You’re watching the tectonic plates of Canadian politics shift in real time.

Matt Jeneroux: the MP for Edmonton Riverbend: just became the third Conservative to jump ship in three months. That’s not a trend. That’s a pattern.

The Numbers Don’t Lie (But They Tell an Interesting Story)

Here’s where we are right now. The Liberals hold 169 seats in the House of Commons. A majority requires 170.

Do the math. They’re three seats short.

But here’s the twist. Jeneroux isn’t the first defector. Chris d’Entremont crossed in November 2025. Michael Ma followed in December. And now Jeneroux makes it a hat trick in February 2026.

Each floor crossing triggers a by-election. Three crossings equal three by-elections. If the Liberals win all three of those upcoming races, Mark Carney gets his majority government without calling a full federal election.

That’s not just smart politics. That’s chess while everyone else is playing checkers.

From Retirement to Reinvention

The backstory here matters. Jeneroux had already announced he was leaving federal politics entirely. Done. Finished. Moving on to the next chapter of his life.

Then he watched Carney’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

According to Jeneroux, the Prime Minister’s focus on Canada’s “national unity crisis” made him rethink everything. Sitting on the sidelines started to feel: in his own words: “disingenuous and quite simply, wrong.”

So instead of retiring, he crossed the floor. And Carney immediately appointed him as a special adviser on economic and security partnerships.

Let’s be clear about what that appointment signals. Carney isn’t just collecting Conservative MPs like Pokémon cards. He’s bringing them into the inner circle. He’s putting them to work on files that matter. Economic partnerships. Security. The kind of portfolio that suggests this isn’t window dressing.

This is integration.

Poilievre Fires Back

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is, predictably, not thrilled.

He’s calling the floor crossings “dirty backroom deals.” He’s accusing Jeneroux of betraying voters by reversing his resignation announcement. And he’s framing the entire situation as Mark Carney playing games instead of governing.

Here’s the thing. Poilievre just secured an 87 percent approval rating at the Conservative Party convention last month. His base loves him. His caucus is (mostly) unified. He’s riding high in the polls.

And yet three of his MPs have now walked away in three months.

That’s not a backroom deal. That’s a problem.

The Big Tent Question

So let’s talk about the question that matters most to centrist Canadians. Is Mark Carney building a genuine “Big Tent” party that can unite the country? Or is this just tactical opportunism dressed up as national unity?

The optimistic view goes like this. Carney: former Governor of the Bank of Canada, former Governor of the Bank of England: brings credibility on the economy that transcends partisan lines. He speaks the language of markets and fiscal responsibility. He’s not your typical Liberal leader. And that appeals to centre-right voters who feel alienated by Poilievre’s populist turn.

Jeneroux himself cited Carney’s Davos speech as the tipping point. If a Conservative MP from Alberta is moved by a Liberal Prime Minister’s call for national unity, maybe something real is happening here.

The cynical view? Three floor crossings in three months isn’t nation-building. It’s math. Carney needs three more seats. He’s finding them one at a time. The “special adviser” appointments look like sweeteners to make the crossing easier. And the by-elections haven’t happened yet: there’s no guarantee the Liberals actually win those seats back.

Alberta’s Voice in Ottawa

Here’s where it gets interesting for Alberta.

Matt Jeneroux represents Edmonton Riverbend. That’s not some Liberal-friendly riding in downtown Toronto. That’s Alberta. Oil country. Conservative heartland.

And now that voice is sitting at the Liberal table.

Some Albertans will see this as betrayal. Others might see it as pragmatism. If the Liberals are going to form government anyway: majority or not: doesn’t Alberta benefit from having one of its own MPs helping shape economic and security policy?

The tension between provincial and federal politics has never been higher. B.C. Premier David Eby is calling Alberta separatists’ meetings with the Trump administration “treason.” Alberta politicians are pushing back on federal climate policy. Saskatchewan is fighting Ottawa on carbon pricing.

In that context, having an Albertan MP with Carney’s ear might not be the worst thing in the world.

Or it might be exactly the kind of compromise that leaves everyone angry.

The By-Election Wildcard

Let’s not forget the biggest unknown here. The by-elections haven’t happened yet.

Jeneroux, d’Entremont, and Ma have crossed the floor. But those three ridings need to vote again. And there’s no guarantee voters will send the Liberals back to fill those seats.

If even one of those by-elections goes to the Conservatives: or the NDP, or the Bloc: Carney stays in minority territory. All three floor crossings, all the controversy, all the accusations of backroom deals, and he’s still short of a majority.

That’s the risk.

But it’s also the opportunity. If Carney can win all three by-elections, he’s got a majority government without calling a full federal election. He avoids months of campaigning, millions in spending, and the risk of losing seats elsewhere.

Three by-elections are a lot easier to control than 338.

What This Means for the Center

We’re in the middle of everything. That’s not just a slogan. That’s reality.

Pierre Poilievre is pulling the Conservative Party further right. Jagmeet Singh’s NDP is fighting for relevance on the left. And Mark Carney is trying to occupy the entire center lane: from centre-left to centre-right.

The floor crossings suggest that strategy might be working.

But it also raises questions about what the Liberal Party actually stands for in 2026. Is it a party with a coherent vision? Or is it a coalition of whoever happens to be uncomfortable with the alternatives?

The answer probably depends on whether you’re an optimist or a cynic about Canadian politics right now.

The Road Ahead

Mark Carney is three seats away from a majority government. Three by-elections stand between him and the kind of political stability that could define the next chapter of Canadian politics.

Matt Jeneroux’s floor crossing is part of that story. But it’s not the whole story.

Watch what happens in those by-elections. Watch whether more Conservative MPs start to feel “disingenuous” sitting on the sidelines. Watch whether Pierre Poilievre can stop the bleeding or whether the Big Tent gets even bigger.

We’re not picking sides here. We’re watching the game unfold from the middle of the arena. And right now, the game is getting very interesting.

Stay informed. Stay balanced. Stay Canadian.

Read more balanced coverage of Canadian politics at The Canadianist News.