CMHC Set to Release Comprehensive Housing Supply Report for Major Canadian Markets

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) is scheduled to release its latest Housing Supply Report today, Wednesday, March 11, 2026, providing a detailed look at construction trends across the country’s primary metropolitan areas. This release follows a period of significant cooling in the residential sector, as the federal crown corporation assesses how major markets are responding to shifting economic pressures and supply targets.

National Trends and Regional Variations

At the national level, the CMHC is expected to confirm that housing demand remains significantly lower than peak years, with sales activity currently tracking below historical averages. Following a notable decline in property values throughout 2025, the 2026 outlook suggests prices are beginning to stabilize with only modest gains. However, new home construction is forecast to trend downward in many regions as developers navigate high interest rates and an increase in unsold inventory.

In Toronto, the report is anticipated to highlight a continued slowdown in the condominium sector. New housing starts in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) have been hampered by high financing costs, though an increase in purpose-built rental starts is expected to partially mitigate the drop in ownership-oriented developments. Meanwhile, Vancouver is facing similar headwinds, with high construction costs and weakening demand leading to a reduction in new project commencements.

Montreal presents a different trajectory. Following record-setting growth in 2025, housing starts in the city are expected to remain robust through the remainder of 2026. The Montreal market continues to be driven by a surge in rental housing construction, which is projected to gradually increase vacancy rates and provide some relief to the local rental market.

Federal Interventions and Local Support

The report comes amid broader federal efforts to stabilize local markets facing unique challenges. Recently, the federal government confirmed dedicated funding for housing in Jasper to assist in the recovery and rebuilding of residential stock following last year’s wildfire damage. This targeted support is part of a wider strategy to address critical supply shortages in regions impacted by environmental disasters.

Elsewhere, in markets such as Calgary and Edmonton, new home construction is predicted to moderate from recent record highs. Vacancy rates in Calgary are expected to rise toward 6% as a significant volume of new rental supply: initiated during the 2024-2025 boom: finally enters the market.

Why It Matters

The CMHC’s data serves as the primary benchmark for assessing the effectiveness of the National Housing Strategy. For policymakers, these reports indicate whether current incentives are successfully stimulating the "missing middle" and rental supply needed to improve affordability. For the broader economy, the construction slowdown in major hubs like Toronto and Vancouver suggests that inventory levels may remain tight for several years, potentially complicating long-term affordability goals.

As the federal government continues to manage the balance between immigration-driven demand and infrastructure capacity, the data released today will likely shape the next phase of housing policy discussions in Ottawa.

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